On Tuesday I spoke directly to the Chancellor of the Exchequer following his mini-Budget. I asked when he expected the United Kingdom to live within its means. I did so because our country hasn’t since 2001, and the combination of the 2007 financial crisis and the pandemic means our national debt has quadrupled to over £2 trillion.
That is concerning, and I have repeatedly written in the Echo about the moral and economic duty to balance the nation’s books – first because it provides the financial stability that underpins a strong economy and fair society, and second because leaving vast debts to the next generation is unfair.
So I was reassured to hear the Chancellor say that he believes in driving down borrowing, and plans to publish a route-map to show how the UK’s finances will be brought back into balance. But I’m afraid the mooted November publication date needs to be brought forward.
Without timely reassurance, it is likely that the Bank of England will yank on the major lever at its disposal to fight inflation – raising interest rates. Although around three-quarters of mortgage-owners are on fixed rates, that still leaves every month people in Cheltenham needing to remortgage. If families have to pay higher monthly mortgage bills, that in turn could wipe out any savings from lower taxes.
Early reassurance will also maximise the benefit of the Government’s impressive and decisive intervention to cut fuel bills. That policy has averted a bloodbath of Cheltenham businesses this winter. With businesses otherwise unable to heat their premises, we would have been looking at mass closures of shops, bars and restaurants in the High Street, Promenade, Bath Road and elsewhere. And because energy is so critical to the economy, this welcome action will also drive down inflation.
But no-one wants to see those benefits eroded by rising interest rates.
So the British people and the financial markets need rapid comfort that our country is committed to living within its means. I look forward to that being provided at the earliest opportunity.
[Column first published in the Echo]